Aluminum industry weekly news review (6.30-7.4)

[Guinea's bauxite exports increased by 39% year-on-year to 48.6 million tons in the first quarter]

 In the first quarter of 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports increased by 39% year-on-year to 48.6 million tons, and its output was mainly shipped to China. In the first quarter of 2024, Guinea exported 34.9 million tons of bauxite. In the first quarter, SMB, a Chinese company operating in Guinea, exported 18.4 million tons of bauxite, a year-on-year increase of 41%; Chalco's exports increased by 35% year-on-year to 5.1 million tons; AGB2A/SDM exported 8 million tons.

[The EU will accept Trump's unified tariffs, but hopes to exclude key industries] 

The EU is willing to accept a trade agreement with the United States that includes a unified tariff of 10% on many EU exports, but the EU hopes that the United States will commit to lower tariffs on key industries such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft. The EU is also pushing the US to grant quotas and exemptions to substantially reduce the US 25% tariff on cars and auto parts and 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, according to people familiar with the matter. The deadline for the EU to reach a trade agreement with Donald Trump is July 9. If no agreement is reached, tariffs on almost all EU exports to the US will jump to 50%.

[US Aluminum faces key tax credit policy adjustments, industry calls for extension of subsidy period]
The US Congressional Budget proposes to adjust the advanced manufacturing tax credit policy in Section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act, which has triggered a strong reaction from the aluminum industry. The policy currently provides tax credits equivalent to 10% of production costs to the four largest aluminum smelters in the United States, of which Alcoa and Century Aluminum receive subsidies of US$50 million to US$60 million and more than US$20 million per year, respectively. The version passed by the House of Representatives in May plans to end the policy in 2030. Although the Senate amendment extends the withdrawal time to 2034 (reduced to 25% in stages), the industry believes that it is still insufficient to support the 4-6 year construction period and $4-6 billion investment required for new smelters.

[Japan's third-quarter aluminum premium is $108 per ton, down 41% from the previous month]
On June 30, market participants said that high-quality Western aluminum shipped to Japan in the third quarter of this year was $108/ton higher than the LME aluminum price, a sharp drop of 41% from the second quarter, reflecting weak demand. This is also the second consecutive quarter that Japan's quarterly aluminum premium has fallen, and it is also lower than the initial offer of $122-145/ton by global producers.